Vaccine Safety and Immunogenicity in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis Treated With Natalizumab.

Importance: Vaccination in patients with highly active multiple sclerosis (MS) requiring prompt treatment initiation may result in impaired vaccine responses and/or treatment delay. Objective: To assess the immunogenicity and safety of inactivated vaccines administered during natalizumab treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This self-controlled, prospective cohort study followed adult patients with MS from 1 study center in Spain from September 2016 to February 2022. Eligible participants included adults with MS who completed immunization for hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis A virus (HAV), and COVID-19 during natalizumab therapy. Data analysis was conducted from November 2022 to February 2023. Exposures: Patients were categorized according to their time receiving natalizumab treatment at the time of vaccine administration as short-term (≤1 year) or long-term (>1 year). Main Outcomes and Measures: Demographic, clinical, and radiological characteristics were collected during the year before vaccination (prevaccination period) and the year after vaccination (postvaccination period). Seroprotection rates and postvaccination immunoglobulin G titers were determined for each vaccine within both periods. Additionally, differences in annualized relapse rate (ARR), new T2 lesions (NT2L), Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, and John Cunningham virus (JCV) serostatus between the 2 periods were assessed. Results: Sixty patients with MS (mean [SD] age, 43.2 [9.4] years; 44 female [73.3%]; 16 male [26.7%]; mean [SD] disease duration, 17.0 [8.7] years) completed HBV, HAV, and mRNA COVID-19 immunization during natalizumab treatment, with 12 patients in the short-term group and 48 patients in the long-term group. The global seroprotection rate was 93% (95% CI, 86%-98%), with individual vaccine rates of 92% for HAV (95% CI, 73%-99%), 93% for HBV (95% CI, 76%-99%), and 100% for the COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccine (95% CI, 84%-100%). Between the prevaccination and postvaccination periods there was a significant reduction in the mean (SD) ARR (0.28 [0.66] vs 0.01 [0.12]; P = .004) and median (IQR) NT2L (5.00 [2.00-10.00] vs 0.81 [0.00-0.50]; P = .01). No changes in disability accumulation were detected (median [IQR] EDSS score 3.5 [2.0-6.0] vs 3.5 [2.0-6.0]; P = .62). No differences in safety and immunogenicity were observed for all vaccines concerning the duration of natalizumab treatment. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that immunization with inactivated vaccines during natalizumab therapy was both safe and immunogenic, regardless of the treatment duration. Natalizumab may be a valuable option for proper immunization, averting treatment delays in patients with highly active MS; however, this strategy needs to be formally evaluated.

Prediction of disease activity and treatment failure in relapsing-remitting MS patients initiating daily oral DMTs.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding treatment response prediction to oral disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVES: We assessed the capacity of available scoring systems to anticipate disease activity parameters in naïve relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients initiating daily oral DMTs, hypothesizing that they exhibit different predictive potentials. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study and applied the Rio Score (RS), modified Rio Score (mRS), and MAGNIMS Score 12 months after DMT initiation. At 36 months, we examined their ability to predict evidence of disease activity (EDA) components and treatment failure by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Notably, 218 patients (62.4% females) initiating dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, and fingolimod were included. At 36 months, the RS high-risk group predicted evidence of clinical activity (odds ratio (OR) 10 [2.7-36.9]) and treatment failure (OR 10.6 [3.4-32.5]) but did not predict radiological activity (OR 1.9 [0.7-5]). The mRS non-responders group did not predict EDA and treatment failure. RS, mRS, and MAGNIMS 0 categories showed significantly lower EDA and treatment failure than the remainder. CONCLUSION: Scoring systems present different predictive abilities for disease activity parameters at 36 months in MS patients initiating daily oral therapies, warranting further adjustments (i.e. introduction of fluid biomarkers) to depict disease activity status fully.

Trans-Synaptic Degeneration in the Visual Pathway in Patients With Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Antibody-Associated Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the presence of retinal neurodegeneration independent of optic neuritis (ON) in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) and to investigate the development of trans-synaptic anterograde degeneration in these patients after ON. METHODS: Cross-sectional, retrospective study of 34 adult patients with MOGAD and 23 healthy controls (HC). Clinical, optical coherence tomography (OCT), and MRI data were collected. Peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) and ganglion cell inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) were obtained using Heidelberg Spectralis. FreeSurfer7 was used to obtain the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN), occipital volume fractions (to total estimated intracranial volume), and occipital cortical thickness. For the anterior visual pathway, the analysis was conducted using eyes, classified based on the history of ON (Eye-ON and Eye-NON) and compared with Eye-HC. The analysis of OCT and brain volumetric measures was conducted comparing MOGAD-ON, MOGAD-NON, and HC groups. The analysis of covariance with a Bonferroni-adjusted post hoc test was used to test differences between groups and linear regression analysis to evaluate OCT/MRI associations; age and sex were considered as covariates. RESULTS: 24 (70.5%) patients had a prior ON. Median pRNFL and GCIPL thickness (um) was significantly reduced in Eye-ON vs EyeNON and HC (pRNFL: 69.4 (17.3), 89.6 (13.7), 98.2 (11.7), p < 0.001; GCIPL: 55.8 (8.7), 67.39 (8.7), 72.6 (4.5), p < 0.001). pRNFL and GCIPL thickness had a negative correlation with the number of ON episodes (p = 0.025 and p = 0.031, respectively). LGN volume fraction was significantly lower in patients with MOGAD-ON than in HC (0.33 (0.05) vs 0.39 (0.04), p = 0.002). The occipital cortical thickness was lower in MOGAD-ON compared with MOGAD-NON and HC (p = 0.010). In patients with MOGAD-ON, pRNFL correlated with LGN volume (p = 0.006), occipital thickness (p = 0.002), and the medial occipital cortex (p = 0.002), but not the lateral occipital lobe. DISCUSSION: Compared with HC, MOGAD-ON exhibits reduced retinal thickness, primarily influenced by the presence and the number of prior ON episodes. Moreover, MOGAD-ON demonstrates significant atrophy in the retinal, subcortical, and cortical regions of the visual pathway, distinguishing them from MOGAD-NON and HC. These findings suggest that in patients with MOGAD neurodegeneration is tightly correlated with damage to the involved pathway.

What contributes to disability in progressive MS? A brain and cervical cord-matched quantitative MRI study.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the ability of a brain-and-cord-matched quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) protocol to differentiate patients with progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) from controls, in terms of normal-appearing (NA) tissue abnormalities, and explain disability. METHODS: A total of 27 patients and 16 controls were assessed on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), 25-foot timed walk (TWT), 9-hole peg (9HPT) and symbol digit modalities (SDMT) tests. All underwent 3T brain and (C2-C3) cord structural imaging and qMRI (relaxometry, quantitative magnetisation transfer, multi-shell diffusion-weighted imaging), using a fast brain-and-cord-matched protocol with brain-and-cord-unified imaging readouts. Lesion and NA-tissue volumes and qMRI metrics reflecting demyelination and axonal loss were obtained. Random forest analyses identified the most relevant volumetric/qMRI measures to clinical outcomes. Confounder-adjusted linear regression estimated the actual MRI-clinical associations. RESULTS: Several qMRI/volumetric differences between patients and controls were observed (p < 0.01). Higher NA-deep grey matter quantitative-T1 (EDSS: beta = 7.96, p = 0.006; 9HPT: beta = -0.09, p = 0.004), higher NA-white matter orientation dispersion index (TWT: beta = -3.21, p = 0.005; SDMT: beta = -847.10, p < 0.001), lower whole-cord bound pool fraction (9HPT: beta = 0.79, p = 0.001) and higher NA-cortical grey matter quantitative-T1 (SDMT = -94.31, p < 0.001) emerged as particularly relevant predictors of greater disability. CONCLUSION: Fast brain-and-cord-matched qMRI protocols are feasible and identify demyelination - combined with other mechanisms - as key for disability accumulation in PMS.

Efficacy of three benznidazole dosing strategies for adults living with chronic Chagas disease (MULTIBENZ): an international, randomised, double-blind, phase 2b trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with benznidazole for chronic Chagas disease is associated with low cure rates and substantial toxicity. We aimed to compare the parasitological efficacy and safety of 3 different benznidazole regimens in adult patients with chronic Chagas disease. METHODS: The MULTIBENZ trial was an international, randomised, double-blind, phase 2b trial performed in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Spain. We included participants aged 18 years and older diagnosed with Chagas disease with two different serological tests and detectable T cruzi DNA by qPCR in blood. Previously treated people, pregnant women, and people with severe cardiac forms were excluded. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1:1, using a balanced block randomisation scheme stratified by country, to receive benznidazole at three different doses: 300 mg/day for 60 days (control group), 150 mg/day for 60 days (low dose group), or 400 mg/day for 15 days (short treatment group). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with a sustained parasitological negativity by qPCR during a follow-up period of 12 months. The primary safety outcome was the proportion of people who permanently discontinued the treatment. Both primary efficacy analysis and primary safety analysis were done in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with EudraCT, 2016-003789-21, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03191162, and is completed. FINDINGS: From April 20, 2017, to Sept 20, 2020, 245 people were enrolled, and 234 were randomly assigned: 78 to the control group, 77 to the low dose group, and 79 to the short treatment group. Sustained parasitological negativity was observed in 42 (54%) of 78 participants in the control group, 47 (61%) of 77 in the low dose group, and 46 (58%) of 79 in the short treatment group. Odds ratios were 1·41 (95% CI 0·69-2·88; p=0·34) when comparing the low dose and control groups and 1·23 (0·61-2·50; p=0·55) when comparing short treatment and control groups. 177 participants (76%) had an adverse event: 62 (79%) in the control group, 56 (73%) in the low dose group, and 59 (77%) in the short treatment group. However, discontinuations were less frequent in the short treatment group compared with the control group (2 [2%] vs 11 [14%]; OR 0·20, 95% CI 0·04-0·95; p=0·044). INTERPRETATION: Participants had a similar parasitological responses. However, reducing the usual treatment from 8 weeks to 2 weeks might maintain the same response while facilitating adherence and increasing treatment coverage. These findings should be confirmed in a phase 3 clinical trial. FUNDING: European Community's 7th Framework Programme.

Progression Independent of Relapse Activity in Multiple Sclerosis: Closer to Solving the Pathologic Puzzle

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is one of the main mechanisms of disability accrual in multiple sclerosis (MS) even in people with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS).1 PIRA can occur at any stage of the disease and is associated with unfavorable long-term outcomes, especially if PIRA occurs early in the disease course.2 The pathologic substrates of PIRA are not yet well understood, although there is growing evidence suggesting that PIRA may occur mainly in a predominant neurodegenerative context,3-6 sometimes in combination with an acute inflammatory activity.2,5 A deeper understanding of the pathologic processes underlying PIRA represents a vital initial stride toward averting the accumulation of irreversible disability in MS.

Treatment reduces the incidence of newly appearing multiple sclerosis lesions evolving into chronic active, slowly expanding lesions: A retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Newly appearing lesions in multiple sclerosis (MS) may evolve into chronically active, slowly expanding lesions (SELs), leading to sustained disability progression. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of newly appearing lesions developing into SELs, and their correlation to clinical evolution and treatment. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of a fingolimod trial in primary progressive MS (PPMS; INFORMS, NCT00731692) was undertaken. Data were available from 324 patients with magnetic resonance imaging scans up to 3 years after screening. New lesions at year 1 were identified with convolutional neural networks, and SELs obtained through a deformation-based method. Clinical disability was assessed annually by Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Nine-Hole Peg Test, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test. Linear, logistic, and mixed-effect models were used to assess the relationship between the Jacobian expansion in new lesions and SELs, disability scores, and treatment status. RESULTS: One hundred seventy patients had ≥1 new lesions at year 1 and had a higher lesion count at screening compared to patients with no new lesions (median = 27 vs. 22, p = 0.007). Among the new lesions (median = 2 per patient), 37% evolved into definite or possible SELs. Higher SEL volume and count were associated with EDSS worsening and confirmed disability progression. Treated patients had lower volume and count of definite SELs (ß = -0.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.07 to -0.01, p = 0.015; ß = -0.36, 95% CI = -0.67 to -0.06, p = 0.019, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Incident chronic active lesions are common in PPMS, and fingolimod treatment can reduce their number.

Evolution of brain MRI lesions in paediatric myelin-oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) and its relevance to disease course.

BACKGROUND: Lesion resolution is often observed in children with myelin-oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD), and asymptomatic lesions are less commonly reported in MOGAD than in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate brain MRI changes over time in paediatric MOGAD. METHODS: Retrospective study in eight UK paediatric neuroscience centres. Acute brain MRI and available follow-up MRIs were reviewed. Predictors for lesion dynamic were evaluated using multivariable regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to predict risk of relapse, disability and MOG-Ab status. RESULTS: 200 children were included (MOGAD 97; MS 103). At first MRI post attack, new symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions were seen more often in MS versus MOGAD (52/103 vs 28/97; p=0.002 and 37/103 vs 11/97; p<0.001); 83% of patients with MOGAD showed at least one lesion's resolution at first follow-up scan, and 23% had normal MRI. Only 1 patient with MS had single lesion resolution; none had normal MRI. Disappearing lesions in MOGAD were seen in 40% after the second attack, 21% after third attack and none after the fourth attack.New lesions at first follow-up scan were associated with increased likelihood of relapse (p=0.02) and persistent MOG-Ab serostatus (p=0.0016) compared with those with no new lesions. Plasma exchange was associated with increased likelihood of lesion resolution (p=0.01). Longer time from symptom onset to steroids was associated with increased likelihood of new lesions; 50% increase at 20 days (p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These striking differences in lesion dynamics between MOGAD and MS suggest greater potential to repair. Early treatment with steroids and plasma exchange is associated with reduced likelihood of new lesions.

Global and Regional Deep Learning Models for Multiple Sclerosis Stratification From MRI.

BACKGROUND: The combination of anatomical MRI and deep learning-based methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is a promising strategy to build predictive models of multiple sclerosis (MS) prognosis. However, studies assessing the effect of different input strategies on model's performance are lacking. PURPOSE: To compare whole-brain input sampling strategies and regional/specific-tissue strategies, which focus on a priori known relevant areas for disability accrual, to stratify MS patients based on their disability level. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective. SUBJECTS: Three hundred nineteen MS patients (382 brain MRI scans) with clinical assessment of disability level performed within the following 6 months (~70% training/~15% validation/~15% inference in-house dataset) and 440 MS patients from multiple centers (independent external validation cohort). FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: Single vendor 1.5 T or 3.0 T. Magnetization-Prepared Rapid Gradient-Echo and Fluid-Attenuated Inversion Recovery sequences. ASSESSMENT: A 7-fold patient cross validation strategy was used to train a 3D-CNN to classify patients into two groups, Expanded Disability Status Scale score (EDSS) ≥ 3.0 or EDSS < 3.0. Two strategies were investigated: 1) a global approach, taking the whole brain volume as input and 2) regional approaches using five different regions-of-interest: white matter, gray matter, subcortical gray matter, ventricles, and brainstem structures. The performance of the models was assessed in the in-house and the independent external cohorts. STATISTICAL TESTS: Balanced accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). RESULTS: With the in-house dataset, the gray matter regional model showed the highest stratification accuracy (81%), followed by the global approach (79%). In the external dataset, without any further retraining, an accuracy of 72% was achieved for the white matter model and 71% for the global approach. DATA CONCLUSION: The global approach offered the best trade-off between internal performance and external validation to stratify MS patients based on accumulated disability. EVIDENCE LEVEL: 4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Genetic influences on disease course and severity, 30 years after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Multiple sclerosis risk has a well-established polygenic component, yet the genetic contribution to disease course and severity remains unclear and difficult to examine. Accurately measuring disease progression requires long-term study of clinical and radiological outcomes with sufficient follow-up duration to confidently confirm disability accrual and multiple sclerosis phenotypes. In this retrospective study, we explore genetic influences on long-term disease course and severity; in a unique cohort of clinically isolated syndrome patients with homogenous 30-year disease duration, deep clinical phenotyping and advanced MRI metrics. Sixty-one clinically isolated syndrome patients [41 female (67%): 20 male (33%)] underwent clinical and MRI assessment at baseline, 1-, 5-, 10-, 14-, 20- and 30-year follow-up (mean age ± standard deviation: 60.9 ± 6.5 years). After 30 years, 29 patients developed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 15 developed secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and 17 still had a clinically isolated syndrome. Twenty-seven genes were investigated for associations with clinical outcomes [including disease course and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)] and brain MRI (including white matter lesions, cortical lesions, and brain tissue volumes) at the 30-year follow-up. Genetic associations with changes in EDSS, relapses, white matter lesions and brain atrophy (third ventricular and medullary measurements) over 30 years were assessed using mixed-effects models. HLA-DRB1*1501-positive (n = 26) patients showed faster white matter lesion accrual [+1.96 lesions/year (0.64-3.29), P = 3.8 × 10-3], greater 30-year white matter lesion volumes [+11.60 ml, (5.49-18.29), P = 1.27 × 10-3] and higher annualized relapse rates [+0.06 relapses/year (0.005-0.11), P = 0.031] compared with HLA-DRB1*1501-negative patients (n = 35). PVRL2-positive patients (n = 41) had more cortical lesions (+0.83 [0.08-1.66], P = 0.042), faster EDSS worsening [+0.06 points/year (0.02-0.11), P = 0.010], greater 30-year EDSS [+1.72 (0.49-2.93), P = 0.013; multiple sclerosis cases: +2.60 (1.30-3.87), P = 2.02 × 10-3], and greater risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [odds ratio (OR) = 12.25 (1.15-23.10), P = 0.031] than PVRL2-negative patients (n = 18). In contrast, IRX1-positive (n = 30) patients had preserved 30-year grey matter fraction [+0.76% (0.28-1.29), P = 8.4 × 10-3], lower risk of cortical lesions [OR = 0.22 (0.05-0.99), P = 0.049] and lower 30-year EDSS [-1.35 (-0.87,-3.44), P = 0.026; multiple sclerosis cases: -2.12 (-0.87, -3.44), P = 5.02 × 10-3] than IRX1-negative patients (n = 30). In multiple sclerosis cases, IRX1-positive patients also had slower EDSS worsening [-0.07 points/year (-0.01,-0.13), P = 0.015] and lower risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [OR = 0.19 (0.04-0.92), P = 0.042]. These exploratory findings support diverse genetic influences on pathological mechanisms associated with multiple sclerosis disease course. HLA-DRB1*1501 influenced white matter inflammation and relapses, while IRX1 (protective) and PVRL2 (adverse) were associated with grey matter pathology (cortical lesions and atrophy), long-term disability worsening and the risk of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein Antibodies in Adults with a First Demyelinating Event Suggestive of Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibodies (MOG-Ab) distinguish multiple sclerosis (MS) from MOG-associated disease in most cases. However, studies analyzing MOG-Ab at the time of a first demyelinating event suggestive of MS in adults are lacking. We aimed to (1) evaluate the prevalence of MOG-Ab in a first demyelinating event suggestive of MS and (2) compare clinical and paraclinical features between seropositive (MOG-Ab+) and seronegative (MOG-Ab-) patients. METHODS: Six hundred thirty adult patients with available serum samples obtained within 6 months from the first event were included. MOG-Ab were analyzed using a live cell-based assay. Statistical analyses included parametric and nonparametric tests, logistic regression, and survival models. RESULTS: MOG-Ab were positive in 17 of 630 (2.7%). Fourteen out of 17 (82.4%) MOG-Ab+ patients presented with optic neuritis (ON) compared to 227of 613 (37.0%) MOG-Ab- patients (p = 0.009). Cerebrospinal fluid-restricted oligoclonal bands (CSF-OBs) were found in 2 of 16 (12.5%) MOG-Ab+ versus 371 of 601 (61.7%) MOG-Ab- subjects (p < 0.001). Baseline brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was normal in 9 of 17 (52.9%) MOG-Ab+ versus 153 of 585 (26.2%) MOG-Ab- patients (p = 0.029). Absence of CSF-OBs and ON at onset were independently associated with MOG-Ab positivity (odds ratio [OR] = 9.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04-53.6, p = 0.009; and OR = 4.17, 95% CI = 1.15-19.8, p = 0.042, respectively). Of MOG-Ab+ patients, 22.9% (95% CI = 0.0-42.7) compared to 67.6% (95% CI = 63.3-71.3) of MOG-Ab- patients fulfilled McDonald 2017 criteria at 5 years (log-rank p = 0.003). INTERPRETATION: MOG-Ab are infrequent in adults with a first demyelinating event suggestive of MS. However, based on our results, we suggest to determine these antibodies in those patients with ON and absence of CSF-OBs, as long as the brain MRI is not suggestive of MS. ANN NEUROL 2023.

A single-dose strategy for immunization with live attenuated vaccines is an effective option before treatment initiation in multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND: Mumps-Measles-Rubella (MMR) and Varicella zoster vaccines (VAR) are live attenuated vaccines, usually administered in a two-dose scheme at least 4 weeks apart. However, single-dose immunization schemes may also be effective and can reduce delays in immunosuppressive treatment initiation in patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) who need to be immunized. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the immunogenicity of a single-dose attempt (SDA) versus the standard immunization scheme (SIS) with VAR and/or MMR in pwMS. METHODS: Retrospective observational study in pwMS vaccinated against VAR and/or MMR. We compared seroprotection rates and antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) between the two strategies. RESULTS: Ninety-six patients were included. Thirty-one patients received VAR and 67 MMR. In the SDA group, the seroprotection rate was 66.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 53.3-78.3) versus 97.2% (95% CI: 85.5-99.9) in the SIS (p < 0.001). For the seroprotected patients, GMTs were similar for both schemes. CONCLUSION: An SDA of VAR and/or MMR vaccines could be sufficient to protect almost two-thirds of patients. Testing immunogenicity after a single dose of VZ and/or MMR could be included in routine clinical practice to achieve rapid immunization.

Association of Very Early Treatment Initiation With the Risk of Long-term Disability in Patients With a First Demyelinating Event.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Early treatment is associated with better long-term outcomes in patients with a first demyelinating event and early multiple sclerosis (MS). However, magnetic resonance (MR) findings are not usually integrated to construct propensity scores (PSs) when evaluating outcomes. We assessed the association of receiving very early treatment with the risk of long-term disability including an MR score (MRS) in patients with a first demyelinating event. METHODS: We included 580 patients with a first demyelinating event prospectively collected between 1994 and 2021, who received at least 1 disease-modifying drug (DMD). Patients were classified into tertiles according to the cohort's distribution of the time from the first demyelinating event to the first DMD: first tertile (FT) or very early treatment (6 months; n = 194), second tertile (6.1-16 months, n = 192), and third tertile (TT) (16.1 months, n = 194). A 5-point MRS was built according to the sum of the following indicators: ≥9 brain lesions (1 point); ≥1 infratentorial lesion (1 point); ≥1 spinal cord (SC) lesion (1 point); ≥1 contrast-enhancing (CE) brain lesion (1 point); and ≥1 CE SC lesion (1 point). PS based on covariates and the MRS was computed for each of the outcomes. Inverse PS-weighted Cox and linear regression models assessed the risk of different outcomes between tertile groups. Finally, to confirm the role of MR in treatment decision, we studied the time elapsed from the first demyelinating event to treatment initiation according to the MRS in all patients with radiologic available information, renamed as raw-MRS. RESULTS: Very early treatment decreased the risk of reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale 3.0 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.55, 95% CI 0.32-0.97), secondary progressive MS (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19-0.85), and sustained disease progression at 12 months after treatment initiation (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.84), when compared with patients from the TT group. Patients from the FT group had a lower disability progression rate (ß estimate -0.009, 95% CI -0.016 to -0.002) and a lower severe disability measured by the Patient-Determined Disease Step (ß estimate -0.52, 95% CI -0.91 to -0.13) than the TT group. Finally, there was a 62.4% reduction in the median time between the first demyelinating event and the first-ever treatment initiation from patients displaying a raw-MRS 1 to patients with a raw-MRS 5. DISCUSSION: Using PS models with and without MRS, we showed that treatment initiation at very early stages is associated with a reduction in the risk of long-term disability accrual in patients with a first demyelinating event. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that earlier treatment of patients with MS presenting with a first demyelinating event is associated with improved clinical outcomes.

Deciphering multiple sclerosis disability with deep learning attention maps on clinical MRI.

The application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to MRI data has emerged as a promising approach to achieving unprecedented levels of accuracy when predicting the course of neurological conditions, including multiple sclerosis, by means of extracting image features not detectable through conventional methods. Additionally, the study of CNN-derived attention maps, which indicate the most relevant anatomical features for CNN-based decisions, has the potential to uncover key disease mechanisms leading to disability accumulation. From a cohort of patients prospectively followed up after a first demyelinating attack, we selected those with T1-weighted and T2-FLAIR brain MRI sequences available for image analysis and a clinical assessment performed within the following six months (N = 319). Patients were divided into two groups according to expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score: ≥3.0 and < 3.0. A 3D-CNN model predicted the class using whole-brain MRI scans as input. A comparison with a logistic regression (LR) model using volumetric measurements as explanatory variables and a validation of the CNN model on an independent dataset with similar characteristics (N = 440) were also performed. The layer-wise relevance propagation method was used to obtain individual attention maps. The CNN model achieved a mean accuracy of 79% and proved to be superior to the equivalent LR-model (77%). Additionally, the model was successfully validated in the independent external cohort without any re-training (accuracy = 71%). Attention-map analyses revealed the predominant role of frontotemporal cortex and cerebellum for CNN decisions, suggesting that the mechanisms leading to disability accrual exceed the mere presence of brain lesions or atrophy and probably involve how damage is distributed in the central nervous system.

Aberrant olfactory network functional connectivity in people with olfactory dysfunction following COVID-19 infection: an exploratory, observational study.

Background: Olfactory impairments and anosmia from COVID-19 infection typically resolve within 2-4 weeks, although in some cases, symptoms persist longer. COVID-19-related anosmia is associated with olfactory bulb atrophy, however, the impact on cortical structures is relatively unknown, particularly in those with long-term symptoms. Methods: In this exploratory, observational study, we studied individuals who experienced COVID-19-related anosmia, with or without recovered sense of smell, and compared against individuals with no prior COVID-19 infection (confirmed by antibody testing, all vaccine naïve). MRI Imaging was carried out between the 15th July and 17th November 2020 at the Queen Square House Clinical Scanning Facility, UCL, United Kingdom. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and structural imaging, we assessed differences in functional connectivity (FC) between olfactory regions, whole brain grey matter (GM) cerebral blood flow (CBF) and GM density. Findings: Individuals with anosmia showed increased FC between the left orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), visual association cortex and cerebellum and FC reductions between the right OFC and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex compared to those with no prior COVID-19 infection (p < 0.05, from whole brain statistical parametric map analysis). Individuals with anosmia also showed greater CBF in the left insula, hippocampus and ventral posterior cingulate when compared to those with resolved anosmia (p < 0.05, from whole brain statistical parametric map analysis). Interpretation: This work describes, for the first time to our knowledge, functional differences within olfactory areas and regions involved in sensory processing and cognitive functioning. This work identifies key areas for further research and potential target sites for therapeutic strategies. Funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research and supported by the Queen Square Scanner business case.

Association of Early Progression Independent of Relapse Activity With Long-term Disability After a First Demyelinating Event in Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is the main event responsible for irreversible disability accumulation in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To investigate clinical and neuroimaging predictors of PIRA at the time of the first demyelinating attack and factors associated with long-term clinical outcomes of people who present with PIRA. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study, conducted from January 1, 1994, to July 31, 2021, included patients with a first demyelinating attack from multiple sclerosis; patients were recruited from 1 study center in Spain. Patients were excluded if they refused to participate, had alternative diagnoses, did not meet protocol requirements, had inconsistent demographic information, or had less than 3 clinical assessments. Exposures: Exposures included (1) clinical and neuroimaging features at the first demyelinating attack and (2) presenting PIRA, ie, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA) in a free-relapse period at any time after symptom onset, within (vs after) the first 5 years of the disease (ie, early/late PIRA), and in the presence (vs absence) of new T2 lesions in the previous 2 years (ie, active/nonactive PIRA). Main Outcomes and Measures: Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) yearly increase rates since the first attack and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for predictors of time to PIRA and time to EDSS 6.0. Results: Of the 1128 patients (mean [SD] age, 32.1 [8.3] years; 781 female individuals [69.2%]) included in the study, 277 (25%) developed 1 or more PIRA events at a median (IQR) follow-up time of 7.2 (4.6-12.4) years (for first PIRA). Of all patients with PIRA, 86 of 277 (31%) developed early PIRA, and 73 of 144 (51%) developed active PIRA. Patients with PIRA were slightly older, had more brain lesions, and were more likely to have oligoclonal bands than those without PIRA. Older age at the first attack was the only predictor of PIRA (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.23-1.65; P < .001 for each older decade). Patients with PIRA had steeper EDSS yearly increase rates (0.18; 95% CI, 0.16-0.20 vs 0.04; 95% CI, 0.02-0.05; P < .001) and an 8-fold greater risk of reaching EDSS 6.0 (HR, 7.93; 95% CI, 2.25-27.96; P = .001) than those without PIRA. Early PIRA had steeper EDSS yearly increase rates than late PIRA (0.31; 95% CI, 0.26-0.35 vs 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.16; P < .001) and a 26-fold greater risk of reaching EDSS 6.0 from the first attack (HR, 26.21; 95% CI, 2.26-303.95; P = .009). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest that for patients with multiple sclerosis, presenting with PIRA after a first demyelinating event was not uncommon and suggests an unfavorable long-term prognosis, especially if it occurs early in the disease course.

HLA-DRB1*1501 influences long-term disability progression and tissue damage on MRI in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Whether genetic factors influence the long-term course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is unresolved. OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of HLA-DRB1*1501 on long-term disease course in a homogeneous cohort of clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) patients. METHODS: One hundred seven patients underwent clinical and MRI assessment at the time of CIS and after 1, 3, 5 and 15 years. HLA-DRB1*1501 status was determined using Sanger sequencing and tagging of the rs3135388 polymorphism. Linear/Poisson mixed-effects models were used to investigate rates of change in EDSS and MRI measures based on HLA-DRB1*1501 status. RESULTS: HLA-DRB1*1501 -positive (n = 52) patients showed a faster rate of disability worsening compared with the HLA-DRB1*1501 -negative (n = 55) patients (annualised change in EDSS 0.14/year vs. 0.08/year, p < 0.025), and a greater annualised change in T2 lesion volume (adjusted difference 0.45 mL/year, p < 0.025), a higher number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions, and a faster rate of brain (adjusted difference -0.12%/year, p < 0.05) and spinal cord atrophy (adjusted difference -0.22 mm2/year, p < 0.05). INTERPRETATION: These findings provide evidence that the HLA-DRB1*1501 allele plays a role in MS severity, as measured by long-term disability worsening and a greater extent of inflammatory disease activity and tissue loss. HLA-DRB1*1501 may provide useful information when considering prognosis and treatment decisions in early relapse-onset MS.

Relationship between paramagnetic rim lesions and slowly expanding lesions in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers for chronic active lesions in MS include slowly expanding lesions (SELs) and paramagnetic rim lesions (PRLs). OBJECTIVES: To identify the relationship between SELs and PRLs in MS, and their association with disability. METHODS: 61 people with MS (pwMS) followed retrospectively with MRI including baseline susceptibility-weighted imaging, and longitudinal T1 and T2-weighted scans. SELs were computed using deformation field maps; PRLs were visually identified. Mixed-effects models assessed differences in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score changes between the group defined by the presence of SELs and or PRLs. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 3.2 years. At baseline, out of 1492 lesions, 616 were classified as SELs, and 80 as PRLs. 92% of patients had ⩾ 1 SEL, 56% had ⩾ 1 PRL, while both were found in 51%. SELs compared to non-SELs were more likely to also be PRLs (7% vs. 4%, p = 0.027). PRL counts positively correlated with SEL counts (ρ= 0.28, p = 0.03). SEL + PRL + patients had greater increases in EDSS over time (beta = 0.15/year, 95% confidence interval (0.04, 0.27), p = 0.009) than SEL+PRL-patients. CONCLUSION: SELs are more numerous than PRLs in pwMS. Compared with either SELs or PRLs found in isolation, their joint occurrence was associated with greater clinical progression.